Research: The Antminer profitability crisis
27 December 2022 18:53, UTC
Studying time: ~2 m
Bitcoin’s fall from its all-time excessive to a low of $15,700 has been probably the most dominating narratives this 12 months. Bitcoin misplaced 75% of its worth since Nov. 10, 2020, and over 65% for the reason that starting of the 12 months.
Nevertheless, a way more outstanding story than Bitcoin’s volatility is the divergence between its worth and its hash price.
Regardless of shedding three-quarters of its worth in a 12 months, Bitcoin’s hash price reached its all-time excessive of 271.8 EH/s. This divergence between the hash price and the worth is a singular incidence that hasn’t occurred in any of the earlier bear markets.
The skyrocketing hash price turns into a fair larger outlier when evaluating it to miner revenues. Crypto beforehand analyzed miner income and located that income proceed to lower even for the most important and best mining operations.
Crypto’s evaluation of two well-liked Bitmain miners paints a bleak image of the mining business. Wanting on the Antminer S9 and Antminer S17 exhibits that machines are combating profitability.
Launched in 2017, the Antminer S9 remained worthwhile all through years of market volatility. Nevertheless, as the worldwide hash price started to increase in 2020, the S9 noticed its profitability fall till it lastly grew to become unprofitable in Might 2022, when virtually all machines have been faraway from the community.
With an all-in-sustaining price of round $0.05/kWh, Bitcoin’s worth would wish to surpass $19,000 for the Antminer S9 to turn out to be worthwhile once more.
The Antminer S17 continues to be worthwhile. Launched in 2019 as a extra highly effective iteration of the S9, the S17 produced a most hash price of 56 TH/s. Bitcoin’s present worth and rising hash price put the profitability of the S17 at simply $36 per day. This slim revenue has been reducing virtually day by day and is anticipated to drop even additional within the coming weeks.
The S17 has been combating profitability all year long. The Terra collapse in June 2022 made the S17 unprofitable for the primary time ever, as Bitcoin dropped nicely under $16,000 wiping out billions from the market.
The continuing market volatility, mixed with the ever-expanding hash price, is at the moment placing the profitability of the S17 into query. Wanting on the profitability chart for the S17 exhibits that the machine is experiencing a development much like the S9.
Barely breaking even, the S17 would turn out to be unprofitable if Bitcoin have been to fall beneath $15,500. Crossing the $15,500 may push miners to unplug 1000’s of S17s.